Friday, October 24, 2014

Nah... No Voter Fraud Here... (*SNORT*)



* THIS IS THE FRIGGIN' WASHINGTON POST - LESS THAN TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION.

Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens?

* IN A WORD: YES.

Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor and minority voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.

* IF THEY CAN CONTROL THE DISTRICT IN ORDER TO COMMIT THE FRAUD... WELL... THAT KINDA POINTS TO THEM BEING ABLE TO "MANAGE" THE REPORTING OF THE DATA WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE PROVE THE FRAUD. CAPICHE...?

In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non-citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.

* AGAIN...

But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.

* AND OF THOSE WHO DO... THEY OVERWHELMINGLY REGISTER DEMOCRAT.

Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote.

* ARE YOU READING THIS, PEOPLE...? DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS AN ASSAULT UPON EACH AND EVERY ONE OF US - NO MATTER HOW WE CHOOSE TO VOTE - BECAUSE EACH ILLEGAL VOTE DILUTES LEGAL VOTES!

Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4% of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2% of non-citizens voted in 2010.

* NOT O.OO-SOMETHING. NOT O.O-SOMETHING. NOPE. 6.4% IN THE LAST MAJOR (PRESIDENTIAL) ELECTION YEAR.

* BY THE WAY... THE PENALTY FOR KNOWINGLY VOTING ILLEGALLY... SHOULD BE DEATH.

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80% of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample)...

* FOLKS. UNDERSTAND. AS A PARTY. AS AN INSTITUTION. THE DEMOCRATS SUPPORT VOTER FRAUD. THIS IS WHY THEY'RE CONSTANTLY FIGHTING MOST ATTEMPTS TO REQUIRE IDs AND OTHERWISE STRENGTHEN THE INTEGRITY OF THE VOTING PROCESS.

...we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections.

* AND NOW THE WASHINGTON POST REPORTS THIS. NOW.

(*JUST SHAKING MY HEAD*)

Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress.

* WHERE WERE THESE EXPOSES IN 2008... 2010... 2012...?

Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65% of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin.

* AND PROBABLY DID. (I MEAN... DO THE MATH!)

It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina.

(*PURSED LIPS*)

Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1% of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

* IN A YEAR WHEN THE POST NOW REPORTS (NOW REPORTS!) THAT 6.4% of non-citizens voted NATIONWIDE!

We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted.

* MEANING ONE-QUARTER DIDN'T! (I'LL TAKE IT!)

* AND, AGAIN... SHORT OF MY PROPOSED DEATH PENALTY... LET'S AT LEAST TRY TO SERIOUSLY PUNISHED THOSE WHO STEAL VOTES (CANCEL OUT VOTES) OF AMERICAN CITIZENS VIA ILLEGALLY VOTING THEMSELVES!

An alternative approach to reducing non-citizen turnout might emphasize public information. Unlike other populations, including naturalized citizens, education is not associated with higher participation among non-citizens. In 2008, non-citizens with less than a college degree were significantly more likely to cast a validated vote, and no non-citizens with a college degree or higher cast a validated vote.

* DOES ANYONE BELIEVE THIS...? ANYONE AT ALL...?

(*SMIRK*)

This hints at a link between non-citizen voting and lack of awareness about legal barriers.

* SHEER STUPIDITY? IS THAT WHAT THE AUTHOR IS BASING THIS ILLEGALITY ON? SIMPLY IGNORANCE?

* HOW ABOUT DEMOCRAT EFFORTS TO "GET OUT THE VOTE" - LEGAL AND OTHERWISE? DOES ANYONE BELIEVE THAT ORGANIZATIONS LED BY THE HARD LEFT AND BY THE LIKES OF AL SHARPTON AND FINANCED BY GEORGE SOROS DON'T DELIBERATELY SEEK TO REGISTER ILLEGALS AND GET THEM TO THE POLLS TO VOTE?

* FOLKS... 6.4% IN 2008!

There are obvious limitations to our research, which one should take account of when interpreting the results. Although the CCES sample is large, the non-citizen portion of the sample is modest, with the attendant uncertainty associated with sampling error. We analyze only 828 self-reported non-citizens. Self-reports of citizen status might also be a source of error, although the appendix of our paper shows that the racial, geographic, and attitudinal characteristics of non-citizens (and non-citizen voters) are consistent with their self-reported status.

* FOLKS. IF ANYTHING THE ERROR UNDERSTATES THE PROBLEM. WHETHER OR NOT YOU WANNA HIDE BEHIND "WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE," EVEN LIBERAL DEMOCRATS WITH INTEGRITY WHO ARE HONEST MUST HAZARD A "GUESS" THAT IF ANYTHING... THESE STATS UNDER-REPORT THE TRUE EXTENT OF THE PROBLEM.

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